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[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] narrowly by Donald Trump. His voter suppression strategy and electoral college advantages will result in a EC win but popular vote loss.

Created by on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.

  • estimated 60% on 2020-08-04
  • sty.silver said “You literally just made two predictions that contradict each other, and gave them 130% combined. To be minimally consistent, these two predictions have to receive at most 100% total.on 2020-08-06
  • sty.silver said “Moreover, both predictions are ambiguous since the term “narrow” is ambiguous.on 2020-08-06
  • PlacidPlatypus said “@sty.silver Actually you missed so he’s at 190% total.on 2020-08-06
  • JoshuaZ said “Maybe Evan’s just rapidly updating?on 2020-08-06
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-12-09.