[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] narrowly by Donald Trump. His voter suppression strategy and electoral college advantages will result in a EC win but popular vote loss.
Created by email@example.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
- firstname.lastname@example.org estimated 60% on 2020-08-04
- sty.silver said “You literally just made two predictions that contradict each other, and gave them 130% combined. To be minimally consistent, these two predictions have to receive at most 100% total.” on 2020-08-06
- sty.silver said “Moreover, both predictions are ambiguous since the term “narrow” is ambiguous.” on 2020-08-06
- PlacidPlatypus said “@sty.silver Actually you missed https://predictionbook.com/predictions/200044 so he’s at 190% total.” on 2020-08-06
- JoshuaZ said “Maybe Evan’s just rapidly updating?” on 2020-08-06
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2020-12-09.
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