[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month.

Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-09-18.

• two2thehead estimated 51% on 2020-08-15
• two2thehead said “Inspired by this article : http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-russian-hybrid-intervention.html” on 2020-08-15
• two2thehead said “If Russia invades via conventional armed forces this is marked as correct as well” on 2020-08-15
• two2thehead said “Known on condition is an article or articles on news websites like the BBC or NYTIMES or similar. Judged by me.” on 2020-08-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2020-08-15
• two2thehead estimated 85% on 2020-08-19
• NickN estimated 70% on 2020-08-19
• Deepak estimated 30% on 2020-08-27
• two2thehead estimated 65% and said “dang it” on 2020-08-28
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 30% on 2020-08-28
• two2thehead estimated 35% on 2020-09-08
• two2thehead estimated 25% on 2020-09-09
• two2thehead estimated 10% on 2020-09-12
• two2thehead estimated 5% and said “Actually I don’t feel like updating it until it ends so I’ll go with my first thought” on 2020-09-12
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-09-18.