There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election.
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.
- EliTyre estimated 20% on 2020-08-17
- ayegill estimated 15% and said “Going by Metaculus predictions, there’s a roughly 15% chance that Trump loses and doesn’t concede, which could be one catalyst for this sort of thing.” on 2020-08-18
- Deepak said “This might be contentious to judge. Does a well-attended peaceful protest count? If there’s a small but very violent reaction, would this be judged true?” on 2020-08-18
- unexpectedEOF estimated 30% on 2020-08-19
- jamesrom said “Hmm, there’s almost no outcome where this doesn’t happen. I’m not going to predict it here because I agree with Deepak: it’s going to be contentious to judge.” on 2020-08-25
- ayegill estimated 30% and said “I’ve updated my P(Trump concedes|Trump loses) downwards, and I’m also more concerned about other potential triggers” on 2020-08-29
- unexpectedEOF estimated 40% on 2020-09-16
- ayegill judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-16.
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