Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today

Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22

• jamesrom estimated 0% on 2020-08-22
• Stephen estimated 45% and said “Ballparking (no real math) on https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html average man his age lives to be 87. I guess a 55% chance of being elected.” on 2020-08-22
• NickN estimated 30% on 2020-08-22
• rappatoni estimated 75% on 2020-08-25
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 50% and said “0%? Really? Someone’s gone down an ideology rabbit hole looks like.” on 2020-08-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2020-08-28
• Baeboo estimated 26% on 2020-08-28
• sty.silver estimated 55% on 2020-08-28
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 40% on 2020-08-28
• NickN estimated 15% and said “https://eand.co/this-is-why-it-feels-like-the-democrats-are-going-to-lose-7b96ad6e40a5” on 2020-09-02
• NickN estimated 14% and said “https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632” on 2020-09-02
• najdorf estimated 0% on 2020-09-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2020-09-07
• kenlogan@gmail.com estimated 21% on 2020-09-09
• FrancinePefko estimated 15% on 2020-09-21
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 65% and said “Time has passed, his lead has grown, and his health doesn’t seem any worse.” on 2020-10-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2021-04-05
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 94% on 2021-04-05
• Baeboo estimated 54% on 2021-04-07
• sty.silver estimated 90% on 2021-04-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 84% on 2021-04-08
• jamesrom estimated 0% and said “@PlacidPlatypus, playing for Brier score. It doesn’t matter either side of 50/50 with enough predictions.Please keep personal judgement to yourself.” on 2021-11-28
• PlacidPlatypus said “Being massively overconfident doesn’t seem like a great way to maximize your Brier score but what do I know. I am a little curious what your reasoning is. Even 10% seems wildly low at this point, let alone zero.” on 2021-11-28
• sty.silver said “Brier score is dumb but nonetheless has the property that the correct probability leads to the highest score in expectation” on 2022-02-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 81% on 2022-02-11
• zilong estimated 30% on 2022-08-07
• PlacidPlatypus said “zilong says 70% chance he leaves office before the end of his term but only 3% chance he dies. Do you really think there’s a 67% chance he resigns or is impeached in the next two years? Or am I missing something?” on 2022-08-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 79% on 2022-08-10