California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2020-08-25
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California#Earthquakes” on 2020-08-25
• finback estimated 1% and said “going off base rate: there’s about one every 30 years, 4 months left before EOY, about a 1/90 chance. rounding down to 1%.” on 2020-08-26
• ayegill estimated 1% on 2020-08-28
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2020-09-07
• FrancinePefko estimated 5% on 2020-09-21
• PseudonymousUser said “none have occurred before the UTC deadline” on 2021-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.