I won't catch COVID by the end of September or believe reasonably likely (say, >= 20%) that I did

Created by fandangos on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-09-30; judged right by fandangos on 2020-10-01.

• fandangos estimated 80% on 2020-09-01
• fandangos changed the deadline from “on 2020-09-30” and made the prediction on 2020-09-01
• fandangos   judged this prediction right on 2020-10-01.