Toby Ord comments on my post to clarify what he actually believes

Created by Michael Dickens on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2020-10-03.

• Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2020-09-03
• Michael Dickens said “See https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9AYmbh25eKLojeQGe/disappointing-futures-might-be-as-important-as-existential” on 2020-09-03
• Michael Dickens said “I wrote this prediction because I tried on infer what Toby Ord believes about some things based on what he wrote in The Precipice” on 2020-09-03
• Michael Dickens   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-10-03.