Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November.

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.

• unexpectedEOF estimated 50% on 2020-09-03
• najdorf estimated 10% on 2020-09-04
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-09-04
• arrowinthedark estimated 0% on 2020-09-05
• NickN estimated 1% on 2020-09-06
• jbeshir estimated 0% on 2020-09-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2020-09-07
• JoshuaZ said “I’m interpreting this to mean that he will be generally not campaigning and someone else will be the functional Democratic nominee. He will definitely be on the ballot in many places in a literal sense since the ballots are already being printed. ” on 2020-09-07
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2020-09-07
• PlacidPlatypus said “This needs to be clarified: do you mean literally not on the ballot? As JoshuaZ notes that’s basically impossible at this point. I’d say 2-3% for “Not running and someone else is the effective nominee” but not formally with it this vague.” on 2020-09-08
• JTPeterson estimated 0% on 2020-09-10
• unseen estimated 3% on 2020-09-12
• Baeboo estimated 8% on 2020-09-12
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2020-09-13
• Liging estimated 2% on 2020-09-18
• Baeboo estimated 6% on 2020-09-18
• henryaj estimated 1% on 2020-09-20
• henryaj estimated 1% on 2020-09-20
• FrancinePefko estimated 3% on 2020-09-21
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-10-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2020-10-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% on 2020-10-13
• henryaj   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-03.
• Liging   judged this prediction right on 2020-11-03.
• Liging   judged this prediction right on 2020-11-15.
• Liging   judged this prediction right on 2020-11-15.
• Baeboo   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-19.