Trump dies of COVID-19
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
- technillogue estimated 8% on 2020-10-02
- technillogue estimated 9% on 2020-10-02
- technillogue changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-22” on 2020-10-02
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 7% on 2020-10-02
- JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2020-10-02
- sty.silver estimated 12% on 2020-10-02
- JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Based on going to Walter Reed. ” on 2020-10-02
- Baeboo estimated 8% on 2020-10-03
- technillogue estimated 14% and said “https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1312423908096827392?s=21” on 2020-10-03
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 12% on 2020-10-03
- katriel estimated 14% on 2020-10-03
- jbeshir estimated 8% on 2020-10-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 9% on 2020-10-04
- Deepak estimated 2% on 2020-10-04
- technillogue estimated 23% and said “https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-donald-trump-international-news-politics-ap-top-news-cac560ef169f9e5343d98a128573194a — consider betting on http://bit.ly/trump-death-prediction-market” on 2020-10-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Condition seems to have possibly improved. If he were as bad as my worst suspicions, he wouldn’t have been able to insist on the driveby. ” on 2020-10-05
- sty.silver estimated 8% on 2020-10-05
- fandangos estimated 7% on 2020-10-05
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2020-10-06
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 5% on 2020-10-06
- Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-10-06
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2020-10-08
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-10-09
- technillogue estimated 8% on 2020-10-10
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2020-10-11
- Baeboo estimated 2% on 2020-10-11
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2020-10-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2020-10-16
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-10-17
- jrk estimated 10% on 2020-10-20
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% on 2020-10-20
- InquilineKea estimated 2% on 2020-10-22
- technillogue estimated 1% on 2020-10-31
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-11-24
- technillogue estimated 0% and said “should have probably phrased this as “before the election”” on 2020-12-10
- sty.silver judged this prediction wrong on 2020-12-31.