China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026

Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01

• niconiconi estimated 30% on 2020-10-16
• niconiconi changed the deadline from “on 2026-01-01” and changed their prediction from “China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026” on 2020-10-24
• niconiconi estimated 70% and said “Update: changed the prediction from positive (to conduct) to negative (not to conduct), so it can be judged “correct” if I’m right… ” on 2020-10-24
• chemotaxis101 estimated 75% on 2020-10-26
• Toadface estimated 75% on 2021-10-31