The first randomized clinical trials of Vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 will show a significant effect on the primary endpoint.

Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-11-17.

• srconstantin estimated 25% on 2020-10-27
• sty.silver estimated 80% on 2020-10-28
• Deepak said “Statistically significant? Or any effect size threshold? The former is more a question of sample size than anything ” on 2020-10-28
• two2thehead said “Needs clarification. There’s a major difference between 10 IUs and 10,000 IUs. Then there’s the question of whether the dose is daily or weekly or monthly” on 2020-11-02
• srconstantin said “I’m defining this as “true” if there’s a statistically significant result at any dose & schedule.” on 2020-11-02
• Deepak estimated 60% on 2020-11-02
• srconstantin said “https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v1.full.pdf” on 2020-11-17
• srconstantin   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-17.