The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.

#x-risks

Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31

Fenrir estimated 100% on 2020-10-31
Fenrir changed the deadline from “on 2078-01-01” on 2020-10-31
JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy.” on 2020-10-31
Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-11-01
chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2020-11-01
PlacidPlatypus estimated 0% and said “100%? Really?” on 2020-11-03
Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2020-11-04
Stephen estimated 0% and said “I kind of wish the site wouldn’t let you enter either 100% or 0%.” on 2020-11-08
sty.silver estimated 0% on 2020-11-08
Issa Rice estimated 0% on 2022-03-05
Reinersaltaccount estimated 0% and said “#x-risks” on 2023-02-04
atzeje estimated 0% and said “for what reason would that be likely?” on 2023-03-13
PlacidPlatypus said “This person’s going to be really embarrassed when he nuclear holocaust happens in 2077.” on 2023-03-13
PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “Pascal’s wager is also sufficient to predict 0” on 2023-03-14