If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January

Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-01.

• Liging estimated 100% on 2020-11-03
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 80% on 2020-11-03
• PlacidPlatypus said “Including the chance that he dies, resigns, or is impeached before the official end of his term.” on 2020-11-03
• chemotaxis101 estimated 95% on 2020-11-07
• Baeboo estimated 90% on 2020-11-07
• sty.silver said “I have no idea what that means. Taken literally, it seems trivially false. I don’t expect anything to be ‘normal’” on 2020-11-08
• Liging said “I mean he wouldn’t reduse to give up his post” on 2020-11-15
• korakos estimated 90% on 2020-11-29
• sty.silver said “I still don’t think this is well-defined. What does refuse mean? What happens if he refuses to leave, then people announce they’ll call the secret service, and then he leaves before they arrive? This seems more likely than not to be ambiguous.” on 2020-11-29
• PlacidPlatypus said “Kinda fuzzy, but given that he did voluntarily leave the White House and didn’t have to be forcibly removed or anything that was what the prediction meant?” on 2021-02-01
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2021-02-01.
• Liging said “I understand some of the criticism cited by sty.silver and PlacidPlatypus. I need to write my predictions more clearly. But overall he didn’t refuse to give his post and since Joe Biden is now president I deem my judgement to correct. ” on 2021-02-01