Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
- peter_hurford estimated 97% on 2020-11-04
- Deepak estimated 95% on 2020-11-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 94% on 2020-11-04
- srconstantin estimated 95% on 2020-11-05
- avi estimated 96% on 2020-11-06
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 99% on 2020-11-07
- sty.silver estimated 98% on 2020-11-07
- chemotaxis101 estimated 95% on 2020-11-07
- PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2020-11-07
- Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-11-07
- Michal_Dubrawski estimated 99% on 2020-11-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2020-11-08
- Baeboo estimated 91% on 2020-11-09
- sty.silver said “I find these odds pretty interesting. Reference class forecasting seems to yield 2% for ‘NO’, and given that the margins were much closer in 2000, this seems like a generous estimate.” on 2020-11-09
- Reactionaryhistorian estimated 90% on 2020-11-09
- Baeboo estimated 86% on 2020-11-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 98% on 2020-11-12
- miro estimated 98% on 2020-11-13
- vincentluczkow estimated 98% on 2020-11-16
- true estimated 95% on 2020-11-17
- Baeboo estimated 94% on 2020-11-24
- peter_hurford estimated 100% on 2020-11-26
- Baeboo estimated 92% on 2020-11-26
- sty.silver estimated 99% on 2020-11-26
- JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2020-11-28
- peter_hurford said “Note: I’m going to resolve this based on the electoral college vote on 14 Dec” on 2020-12-02
- sty.silver estimated 100% and said “In the event that Trump wins a majority in the EC, but I’m convinced this should resolve as false. The courts didn’t rule in his favor, so wouldn’t the prediction statement still be literally true?” on 2020-12-13
- sty.silver said “Apologies, that should have said “I’m not convinced […]”” on 2020-12-13
- Baeboo estimated 100% on 2020-12-13
- Deepak judged this prediction right on 2020-12-15.
- Deepak said “Judging correct as all reports suggest the vote was exactly as expected from election day, with no faithless electors. Don’t think it’s necessary to wait until Congress recognises the results in January ” on 2020-12-15