Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.

• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2020-11-08
• JoshuaZ said “Prediction recorded in response to J. S.’s prediction of this event on Facebook. ” on 2020-11-08
• gav estimated 18% and said “VP—>P happened 9/45 times previously, = 0.2 ignoring all else. Main reasons are impeachment or death. Biden seems much less likely to be impeached. However he’s 20 years older than the average US president, plus there’s a pandemic on, so…” on 2020-11-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
• Medea estimated 9% on 2020-11-13
• platypus42 estimated 10% on 2020-11-17
• finback estimated 7% and said “actuarial table for a 77 year old: 4% chance of dying over one year. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Impeachment unlikely, and he’ll have good healthcare, but bumping up for other possibilities like debilitating medical event.” on 2020-11-18
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 6% and said “@JoshuaZ current end date is the beginning of 2021, not the end.” on 2020-11-18
• PlacidPlatypus said “@gav remember this is just over one year, not a full term. So your denominator should be number of years since Washington was inaugurated, not number of presidents: your result is 4x too high.” on 2020-11-18
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01” on 2021-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Fixing date. Updating probability. ” on 2021-01-01
• jazzsolo estimated 5% on 2021-01-09
• jbeshir estimated 5% on 2021-01-10
• hampuslj estimated 3% on 2021-02-20
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2021-03-03
• jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-02.