Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 25 days ago.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2020-11-08
  • JoshuaZ said “Prediction recorded in response to J. S.’s prediction of this event on Facebook. on 2020-11-08
  • gav estimated 18% and said “VP—>P happened 9/45 times previously, = 0.2 ignoring all else. Main reasons are impeachment or death. Biden seems much less likely to be impeached. However he’s 20 years older than the average US president, plus there’s a pandemic on, so…on 2020-11-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
  • Medea estimated 9% on 2020-11-13
  • platypus42 estimated 10% on 2020-11-17
  • finback estimated 7% and said “actuarial table for a 77 year old: 4% chance of dying over one year. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Impeachment unlikely, and he’ll have good healthcare, but bumping up for other possibilities like debilitating medical event.on 2020-11-18
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 6% and said “@JoshuaZ current end date is the beginning of 2021, not the end.on 2020-11-18
  • PlacidPlatypus said “@gav remember this is just over one year, not a full term. So your denominator should be number of years since Washington was inaugurated, not number of presidents: your result is 4x too high.on 2020-11-18
  • JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2021-01-01on 2021-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Fixing date. Updating probability. on 2021-01-01
  • jazzsolo estimated 5% on 2021-01-09
  • jbeshir estimated 5% on 2021-01-10
  • hampuslj estimated 3% on 2021-02-20
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on 2021-03-03
  • jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong 25 days ago.

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