Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.

Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known in 15 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 16 days ago.

  • jbeshir estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
  • jbeshir said “Created due to ambiguity in open questions; this one explicitly settles only when the electoral college votes. Designed to capture doubt relating to lawsuits or any other attempts to challenge the election.on 2020-11-10
  • jbeshir said “(Or, well, it’d also settle if they were prevented from voting before the start of February, via any means, to give it some maximum time horizon.)on 2020-11-10
  • Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-11-10
  • sty.silver estimated 1% on 2020-11-10
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
  • Liging estimated 3% and said “He only needs a minimum of 22k votes to flip, keep that in mind.on 2020-11-15
  • PlacidPlatypus said “@Liging how do you figure? He’d need more than that just to flip Arizona and Georgia, and even then it’s a losing map.on 2020-11-15
  • Baeboo estimated 6% on 2020-11-24
  • Deepak estimated 1% on 2020-11-24
  • Medea estimated 2% on 2020-12-12
  • Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-12-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2020-12-13
  • sty.silver estimated 0% on 2020-12-13
  • Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-12-13
  • Bruno Parga said “The electoral college has voted for Biden, 306-232.16 days ago
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong 16 days ago.

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