Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.

Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• jbeshir estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
• jbeshir said “Created due to ambiguity in open questions; this one explicitly settles only when the electoral college votes. Designed to capture doubt relating to lawsuits or any other attempts to challenge the election.” on 2020-11-10
• jbeshir said “(Or, well, it’d also settle if they were prevented from voting before the start of February, via any means, to give it some maximum time horizon.)” on 2020-11-10
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-11-10
• sty.silver estimated 1% on 2020-11-10
• chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
• Liging estimated 3% and said “He only needs a minimum of 22k votes to flip, keep that in mind.” on 2020-11-15
• PlacidPlatypus said “@Liging how do you figure? He’d need more than that just to flip Arizona and Georgia, and even then it’s a losing map.” on 2020-11-15
• Baeboo estimated 6% on 2020-11-24
• Deepak estimated 1% on 2020-11-24
• Medea estimated 2% on 2020-12-12
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-12-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2020-12-13
• sty.silver estimated 0% on 2020-12-13
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-12-13
• Bruno Parga said “The electoral college has voted for Biden, 306-232.” on 2021-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.