Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
- jbeshir estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
- jbeshir said “Created due to ambiguity in open questions; this one explicitly settles only when the electoral college votes. Designed to capture doubt relating to lawsuits or any other attempts to challenge the election.” on 2020-11-10
- jbeshir said “(Or, well, it’d also settle if they were prevented from voting before the start of February, via any means, to give it some maximum time horizon.)” on 2020-11-10
- Baeboo estimated 10% on 2020-11-10
- sty.silver estimated 1% on 2020-11-10
- chemotaxis101 estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2020-11-10
- Liging estimated 3% and said “He only needs a minimum of 22k votes to flip, keep that in mind.” on 2020-11-15
- PlacidPlatypus said “@Liging how do you figure? He’d need more than that just to flip Arizona and Georgia, and even then it’s a losing map.” on 2020-11-15
- Baeboo estimated 6% on 2020-11-24
- Deepak estimated 1% on 2020-11-24
- Medea estimated 2% on 2020-12-12
- Baeboo estimated 4% on 2020-12-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2020-12-13
- sty.silver estimated 0% on 2020-12-13
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2020-12-13
- Bruno Parga said “The electoral college has voted for Biden, 306-232.” on 2021-01-01
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.
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