A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021)

Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.

• Liging estimated 80% on 2020-11-15
• Baeboo estimated 95% on 2020-11-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 97% on 2020-11-16
• Baeboo estimated 97% on 2020-11-16
• two2thehead estimated 51% and said “Hmm. I probably need to learn more about this, but I’m happy to be wrong. Posting my initial guess probability for the record” on 2020-11-26
• platypus42 estimated 98% on 2020-11-29
• Osuniev estimated 92% on 2020-11-30
• kuudes estimated 99% on 2020-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-12-08
• two2thehead estimated 99% and said “Anything that kuudes supports, is good enough for me” on 2020-12-09
• kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2021-02-20.
• kuudes said “https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210220-world-tops-200-million-vaccine-doses-as-g7-boosts-funding” on 2021-02-20