PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game.

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.

  • topherhunt estimated 80% on 2020-12-12
  • lazarus estimated 20% and said “If this is the path it would have happened already. OpenAI made a great dota2 AI and Google made fantastic SC2 AI but neither of them ever made into the game in a playable format even though they really should have. There’s some incentives missing.” on 2020-12-27
  • platypus42 estimated 10% and said “A year is too short of a timeframe for this to happen, I think. Btw, would we know if an AAA game actually uses non-GPT-3 “comparably advanced AI”, as outsiders? Game company marketing always claims to have super-advanced AI, and …” on 2020-12-29
  • platypus42 said “…it’s not clear that we can detect if it’s actual advanced AI or just well-predicted (by humans) scripted behaviour in the game. ” on 2020-12-29
  • topherhunt said “👍 thanks for the thought. I’ll only consider this a “yes” if the generated content clearly wasn’t hand-scripted, eg. a very large variety or gamer-personalized content.” on 2020-12-30
  • Medea estimated 10% and said “Timeframe is too short for AAA games” on 2021-02-12
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-04-08.