A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words.

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.

• topherhunt estimated 80% on 2020-12-12
• platypus42 said “Can you specify what you mean by “popularized” here? Does it have to be as effective as GPT-3, or have as much media coverage as GPT-3, or something else? ” on 2020-12-15
• topherhunt said “Clarification: by “popularized” I mean that a compelling proof-of-concept has been developed, announced, and made available for public interaction in some form. It doesn’t need to exceed GPT-3 in performance / realism / popular coverage.” on 2020-12-15
• platypus42 estimated 20% on 2020-12-15
• sty.silver estimated 12% on 2020-12-15
• sjy estimated 20% on 2021-01-01
• sole21000 estimated 38% and said “Assuming deadline is end of 2022 and that technique can underperform and receive less media attention than GPT-3.” on 2021-01-07
• jazzsolo estimated 25% on 2021-01-09
• Reinersaltaccount said “Does ChatGPT count? If so, I’ll judge this prediction right. Can you kindly respond?” on 2023-02-04
• sjy said “While a new “conversational AI” was certainly popularised in 2022, it was based on GPT-3, so I think this prediction must be judged as false.” on 2023-02-24
• sjy   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-02-24.