Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021.

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.

• jbeshir estimated 40% on 2021-01-03
• kallman estimated 30% and said “he “hasn’t done anything wrong”, pardoning himself would be admitting defeat, right?” on 2021-01-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2021-01-05
• sole21000 estimated 35% and said “He will deny wrongdoing but justify the pardon as a necessary measure against “corrupt accusations” if so. ” on 2021-01-07
• Medea estimated 30% on 2021-01-08
• Deepak estimated 20% on 2021-01-08
• jazzsolo estimated 15% on 2021-01-09
• larssa estimated 25% and said “I have a hard time believing he’ll try to do this, but he’s proven me wrong before. ” on 2021-01-14
• sty.silver estimated 60% and said “I’m gonna say this is more likely than not.” on 2021-01-16
• aspire43 estimated 65% and said “The man seems to have a track record of taking every opportunity to cover his a**” on 2021-01-17
• D0TheMath estimated 10% on 2021-01-17
• D0TheMath said “Calibrating Metaculus’s community prediction of 40% to 10% using their calibration graph.” on 2021-01-17
• D0TheMath estimated 45% on 2021-01-18
• sty.silver said “Can we resolve this as false now?” on 2021-01-20
• jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-21.

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