By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing.

Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31

• Random estimated 75% on 2021-01-11
• Random said “Don’t believe in clairvoyance but this was a very vivid dream/nightmare. Hope I’m wrong. ” on 2021-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2021-01-13
• two2thehead estimated 1% on 2021-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy. ” on 2021-01-13
• Bruno Parga said “Even not thinking of the massive conjunction, there’s the matter of definitions. What’s “longer than anticipated”? What’s “doing nothing”? What f China uses biological weapons shortly before the deadline and the West “does something” only in August?” on 2021-01-16
• iterate-again estimated 0% on 2021-01-16
• aspire43 estimated 0% and said “Nonsensical. Completely at odds with my sense of geopolitical possibility.” on 2021-01-17
• sty.silver estimated 0% on 2021-01-17
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2021-01-17
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Jumping on the 0 bandwagon.” on 2021-01-19
• D0TheMath estimated 0% on 2021-01-19
• D0TheMath said “P(china will invade Taiwan) = <5%,P(china will use bio weapons | china invades Taiwan) = <1%, P(US & EU do nothing) = 10% → 5% * 1% * 10% = 0.005%” on 2021-01-19
• D0TheMath said “*P(US & EU do nothing) → P(US & EU do nothing | china invades Taiwan & china uses bio weapons)” on 2021-01-19
• ghabs estimated 1% on 2021-01-20
• jbeshir estimated 0% on 2021-01-24
• Liging estimated 0% on 2021-02-01
• Medea estimated 0% on 2021-02-12
• meedstrom estimated 0% and said “Interesting source. Maybe your subconscious picked up on some valid reason for the invasion to happen soon, but the additional details can’t be predicted by a human brain, I’d interpret them merely as one example of how it may go.” on 2021-02-14
• azatris estimated 0% on 2021-02-15

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