By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing.

Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.

  • Random estimated 75% on 2021-01-11
  • Random said “Don’t believe in clairvoyance but this was a very vivid dream/nightmare. Hope I’m wrong. on 2021-01-13
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2021-01-13
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2021-01-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy. on 2021-01-13
  • Bruno Parga said “Even not thinking of the massive conjunction, there’s the matter of definitions. What’s “longer than anticipated”? What’s “doing nothing”? What f China uses biological weapons shortly before the deadline and the West “does something” only in August?on 2021-01-16
  • iterate-again estimated 0% on 2021-01-16
  • aspire43 estimated 0% and said “Nonsensical. Completely at odds with my sense of geopolitical possibility.on 2021-01-17
  • sty.silver estimated 0% on 2021-01-17
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2021-01-17
  • Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Jumping on the 0 bandwagon.on 2021-01-19
  • D0TheMath estimated 0% on 2021-01-19
  • D0TheMath said “P(china will invade Taiwan) = <5%,P(china will use bio weapons | china invades Taiwan) = <1%, P(US & EU do nothing) = 10% → 5% * 1% * 10% = 0.005%on 2021-01-19
  • D0TheMath said “*P(US & EU do nothing) → P(US & EU do nothing | china invades Taiwan & china uses bio weapons)on 2021-01-19
  • ghabs estimated 1% on 2021-01-20
  • jbeshir estimated 0% on 2021-01-24
  • Liging estimated 0% on 2021-02-01
  • Medea estimated 0% on 2021-02-12
  • meedstrom estimated 0% and said “Interesting source. Maybe your subconscious picked up on some valid reason for the invasion to happen soon, but the additional details can’t be predicted by a human brain, I’d interpret them merely as one example of how it may go.on 2021-02-14
  • azatris estimated 0% on 2021-02-15
  • predictorrr estimated 0% on 2021-06-24
  • Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Biden is committed to defending Taiwan, especially if WMDs are used.on 2021-06-30
  • stepan estimated 0% on 2021-07-10
  • D0TheMath   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-07-31.

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