There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments)
- wizzwizz4 estimated 45% on 2021-01-11
- kallman estimated 20% and said “Somewhat hard to enumerate what does and doesn’t count as a country. Even places with widespread vaccination at that point won’t be “virus free”, right?” on 2021-01-18
- kallman judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.
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