Trump convicted by senate in 2021

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.

• D0TheMath estimated 25% on 2021-01-17
• D0TheMath said “Metaculus says 25% https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6303/trump-convicted-by-senate/, and their calibration is spot-on for that level of confidence, so going with them until I get more info.” on 2021-01-17
• Baeboo estimated 38% on 2021-01-17
• krp.1902 estimated 25% on 2021-01-26
• Baeboo estimated 6% on 2021-01-28
• Deepak estimated 10% on 2021-01-28
• Baeboo estimated 8% on 2021-02-01
• Liging estimated 2% on 2021-02-01
• MultiplyByZer0   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-04-02.