Greater Melbourne area (or any part) will come out of stage 4 lockdown at or before 11.59pm on Wednesday 17 Feb 2021

Created by iterate-again on 2021-02-12; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-18.

  • iterate-again estimated 20% on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again said “aon 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again said “did some rough math looking at the last time in stage 4 lockdown how long it took to get from 5 to 0 cases, and then accounting for increased infection rate of UK strain (at 1.5), which gavean R0 probably above 1on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again said “(sorry I was lazy and didnt save the specific calculations!). on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again said “also the math depends on which day of around 5 daily cases in the previous lockdown you use. on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again said “it was only 1 security guard and he hadnt infected anyone else, whereas here there’s already been more people infected, and gov is saying they think there are more undetected cases in the community as well. on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again said “oops the above comment refers to the precedent of the Perth 5 day lockdown after quarantine security guard got UK strainon 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again made the prediction on 2021-02-12
  • iterate-again   judged this prediction right on 2021-02-18.

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