Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election.

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02

• krazemon estimated 80% on 2021-02-23
• krazemon said “Note that this resolves positively if he doensn’t win the primary.” on 2021-02-23
• krazemon said “Actually, changed my mind. Prediction will be withdrawn if he doesn’t win the primary.” on 2021-02-23
• D0TheMath estimated 76% and said “Percent of the time a democratic non-incumbent has won the Mayoral election in the last ~50 years is 67%. But there’s only been 1 change from blue → red (extrapolating, 83.33% of the time). Prior is 75%, updating to 77%.” on 2021-02-23
• D0TheMath estimated 77% on 2021-02-23
• D0TheMath said “oops, meant 77 in the prediction box.” on 2021-02-23
• D0TheMath said “(Update because of increased polarization in US)” on 2021-02-23
• D0TheMath estimated 78% on 2021-02-23
• krazemon withdrew the prediction on 2021-11-02