Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election.

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02

  • krazemon estimated 80% on 2021-02-23
  • krazemon said “Note that this resolves positively if he doensn’t win the primary.on 2021-02-23
  • krazemon said “Actually, changed my mind. Prediction will be withdrawn if he doesn’t win the primary.on 2021-02-23
  • D0TheMath estimated 76% and said “Percent of the time a democratic non-incumbent has won the Mayoral election in the last ~50 years is 67%. But there’s only been 1 change from blue → red (extrapolating, 83.33% of the time). Prior is 75%, updating to 77%.on 2021-02-23
  • D0TheMath estimated 77% on 2021-02-23
  • D0TheMath said “oops, meant 77 in the prediction box.on 2021-02-23
  • D0TheMath said “(Update because of increased polarization in US)on 2021-02-23
  • D0TheMath estimated 78% on 2021-02-23

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