COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021.

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.

• jbeshir estimated 53% on 2021-03-07
• jbeshir said “Decides per https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/, relevant fine print.” on 2021-03-07
• Toadface estimated 15% on 2021-10-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2021-10-31
• jbeshir   judged this prediction right on 2023-01-03.