andrew yang becomes mayor of new york

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.

• htaussig estimated 70% on 2021-03-08
• iconreforged estimated 65% on 2021-04-04
• sty.silver estimated 35% and said “:(” on 2021-06-07
• scatterspace estimated 40% on 2021-06-14
• Baeboo estimated 12% on 2021-06-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Given primary loss. ” on 2021-06-24
• sty.silver estimated 0% and said “:’(” on 2021-06-26
• scatterspace said “Can this be decided now rather than November since he isn’t even a contender in the actual election?” on 2021-06-26
• JoshuaZ said “Possible to run as a write-in. Also parties have sometimes had candidates be replaced when one has dropped out even after a primary. Best to wait until the formal election. ” on 2021-06-26
• jbeshir estimated 0% on 2021-06-27
• htaussig   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-11-08.