Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021.

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.

• jbeshir estimated 27% on 2021-03-21
• jbeshir said “Resolves per https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/” on 2021-03-21
• lazydope estimated 50% on 2021-03-30
• lazydope estimated 35% and said “My inside view intuition says higher, but epistemic modesty and base rate (George Zimmerman etc.) are good arguments” on 2021-03-30
• lazydope estimated 75% and said “everything I’ve seen in the media and social media leans towards a conviction” on 2021-03-31
• jbeshir estimated 40% on 2021-04-01
• jbeshir estimated 55% on 2021-04-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2021-04-18
• lazydope   judged this prediction right on 2021-04-23.