The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.

• lithp estimated 80% on 2021-03-22
• lithp estimated 80% and said “hard to know what to make of this; for now I think no update is in order: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/niaid-statement-astrazeneca-vaccine” on 2021-03-23
• lithp estimated 75% and said “The language here and on reddit indicates AZ is fighting an uphill battle. Slight update downward but the vaccine still looks effective, cooler heads should prevail? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/23/business/astrazeneca-vaccine-questions.html” on 2021-03-24
• lithp estimated 5% and said “I’m not sure how I missed this, it appears they haven’t even applied yet?” on 2021-04-14
• stepan estimated 1% on 2021-04-30
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2021-05-01
• lithp   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-05-01.
• lithp said “Still not sure what I got wrong here. “Bureaucracy” got in the way of approving an obviously useful vaccine, but how does knowledge of “bureaucracy” help me make better predictions in the future?” on 2021-05-01
• Deepak said “@lithp probably the combination of priors should always take an “overcoming a bureaucratic hurdle” penalty as well as adding uncertainty because of how few actual data points there are to update on. But 1/5 failure seems appropriate to calibrate on” on 2021-05-02