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The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st

Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.

  • lithp estimated 80% on 2021-03-22
  • lithp estimated 80% and said “hard to know what to make of this; for now I think no update is in order: 2021-03-23
  • lithp estimated 75% and said “The language here and on reddit indicates AZ is fighting an uphill battle. Slight update downward but the vaccine still looks effective, cooler heads should prevail? 2021-03-24
  • lithp estimated 5% and said “I’m not sure how I missed this, it appears they haven’t even applied yet?on 2021-04-14
  • stepan estimated 1% on 2021-04-30
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2021-05-01
  • lithp   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-05-01.
  • lithp said “Still not sure what I got wrong here. “Bureaucracy” got in the way of approving an obviously useful vaccine, but how does knowledge of “bureaucracy” help me make better predictions in the future?on 2021-05-01
  • Deepak said “@lithp probably the combination of priors should always take an “overcoming a bureaucratic hurdle” penalty as well as adding uncertainty because of how few actual data points there are to update on. But 1/5 failure seems appropriate to calibrate onon 2021-05-02