Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021

Created by jacobgreenleaf 26 days ago; known 20 days ago; judged right by lui 21 days ago.

  • jacobgreenleaf estimated 80% 26 days ago
  • JoshuaZ estimated 72% 25 days ago
  • jbeshir estimated 65% 25 days ago
  • lithp estimated 25% and said “I’m likely being overconfident but just from the Lindy Effect I’d expect it to take 2 more daysThe ship appears to be quite stuck: https://www.npr.org/2021/03/25/981128288/it-might-take-weeks-to-free-ship-stuck-in-suez-canal-salvage-company-says24 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 49% 24 days ago
  • lui estimated 68% 24 days ago
  • jbeshir estimated 40% 24 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 37% 24 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 32% 24 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 42% 23 days ago
  • two2thehead estimated 45% 22 days ago
  • lithp estimated 40% and said “It makes me more optimistic that the ship is now budging: https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/137596681189681152322 days ago
  • 0uGiL estimated 37% 22 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 30% 22 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 25% 22 days ago
  • two2thehead estimated 5% and said “I’m feeling lucky22 days ago
  • lithp estimated 20% and said “Two more big tugboats came and failed to dislodge it even with the favorable tides22 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 85% 21 days ago
  • jbeshir estimated 75% 21 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 88% 21 days ago
  • lithp estimated 90% and said “I was totally wrong about this21 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 90% 21 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 80% 21 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 70% 21 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 65% 21 days ago
  • lithp estimated 70% 21 days ago
  • lui   judged this prediction right 21 days ago.
  • JoshuaZ said “I was correct here but in retrospect was overconfident.21 days ago
  • lithp said “The judgement was a little early, it’s still in the canal! I agree it’s very likely to leave the canal.21 days ago
  • two2thehead said “less than an hour to go. The true false criterion imo depends on whether it’s in the Suez Canal or not.20 days ago
  • two2thehead said ““The ship is anchored in the Great Bitter Lake, where it is undergoing “an inspection of its seaworthiness”, according to its operator Evergreen Marine."20 days ago
  • two2thehead said “source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56574334 20 days ago
  • two2thehead said “The criterion is whether it would exit the Suez Canal. This has not been met and as such I’m marking it wrong20 days ago
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong 20 days ago.
  • JoshuaZ said “Hmm, good call. Shows need to be precise with these. I was thinking of unstuck = exit, and didn’t really think about the time it would take to get out after unsticking at all. 20 days ago
  • jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong 19 days ago.
  • jbeshir said “Deciding false (affecting I think only my own score since there’s a conflict); we speak of the Yellow Fleet as “stuck” in the canal, and those ships were in the Great Bitter Lake, just as EG is now. I had also not thought of this!19 days ago
  • lithp said “Thought this was funny, who among us predicted Egypt would hold the ship for ransom? https://www.wsj.com/articles/suez-canal-has-reopened-but-the-ever-given-is-stuck-again-116178981446 days ago

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