Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 80% on 2021-03-25
- JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2021-03-25
- jbeshir estimated 65% on 2021-03-25
- lithp estimated 25% and said “I’m likely being overconfident but just from the Lindy Effect I’d expect it to take 2 more daysThe ship appears to be quite stuck: https://www.npr.org/2021/03/25/981128288/it-might-take-weeks-to-free-ship-stuck-in-suez-canal-salvage-company-says” on 2021-03-26
- Baeboo estimated 49% on 2021-03-26
- lui estimated 68% on 2021-03-26
- jbeshir estimated 40% on 2021-03-26
- Baeboo estimated 37% on 2021-03-26
- Baeboo estimated 32% on 2021-03-27
- Baeboo estimated 42% on 2021-03-27
- two2thehead estimated 45% on 2021-03-28
- lithp estimated 40% and said “It makes me more optimistic that the ship is now budging: https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1375966811896811523” on 2021-03-28
- 0uGiL estimated 37% on 2021-03-28
- Baeboo estimated 30% on 2021-03-28
- Baeboo estimated 25% on 2021-03-29
- two2thehead estimated 5% and said “I’m feeling lucky” on 2021-03-29
- lithp estimated 20% and said “Two more big tugboats came and failed to dislodge it even with the favorable tides” on 2021-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 85% on 2021-03-29
- jbeshir estimated 75% on 2021-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 88% on 2021-03-29
- lithp estimated 90% and said “I was totally wrong about this” on 2021-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 90% on 2021-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 80% on 2021-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 70% on 2021-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 65% on 2021-03-29
- lithp estimated 70% on 2021-03-29
- lui judged this prediction right on 2021-03-29.
- JoshuaZ said “I was correct here but in retrospect was overconfident.” on 2021-03-29
- lithp said “The judgement was a little early, it’s still in the canal! I agree it’s very likely to leave the canal.” on 2021-03-29
- two2thehead said “less than an hour to go. The true false criterion imo depends on whether it’s in the Suez Canal or not.” on 2021-03-30
- two2thehead said ““The ship is anchored in the Great Bitter Lake, where it is undergoing “an inspection of its seaworthiness”, according to its operator Evergreen Marine."” on 2021-03-30
- two2thehead said “source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56574334 ” on 2021-03-30
- two2thehead said “The criterion is whether it would exit the Suez Canal. This has not been met and as such I’m marking it wrong” on 2021-03-30
- two2thehead judged this prediction wrong on 2021-03-30.
- JoshuaZ said “Hmm, good call. Shows need to be precise with these. I was thinking of unstuck = exit, and didn’t really think about the time it would take to get out after unsticking at all. ” on 2021-03-31
- jbeshir judged this prediction wrong on 2021-03-31.
- jbeshir said “Deciding false (affecting I think only my own score since there’s a conflict); we speak of the Yellow Fleet as “stuck” in the canal, and those ships were in the Great Bitter Lake, just as EG is now. I had also not thought of this!” on 2021-03-31
- lithp said “Thought this was funny, who among us predicted Egypt would hold the ship for ransom? https://www.wsj.com/articles/suez-canal-has-reopened-but-the-ever-given-is-stuck-again-11617898144” on 2021-04-13