PredictionBook is now read-only (

At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21

  • jacobgreenleaf estimated 80% on 2021-09-22
  • stepan estimated 65% on 2021-09-27
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2021-09-29
  • davatk estimated 55% and said ““disrupted” is a little vague—an hour’s downtime? What about scheduled maintenance that includes other fixes? And hard to mark this wrong with any real confidence, without watching all 10k websites. But still a fun prediction!on 2021-09-29
  • bbb estimated 20% on 2021-10-05
  • Medea estimated 60% on 2022-02-01
  • jacobgreenleaf said “It’s definitely hard to judge, but (1) it’s likely that we will hear about any issues of the f500s through news, and (2) perhaps by 2038 I can set up monitoring – there is plenty of time remaining :) on 2022-06-08