Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.

• Andref2015 estimated 3% on 2021-12-09
• M estimated 5% on 2022-01-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2022-01-01
• qznc estimated 5% on 2022-01-02
• Bruno Parga estimated 6% on 2022-01-05
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2022-01-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% and said “#war” on 2022-01-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2022-01-06
• Bruno Parga estimated 25% and said “Both Russian and NATO troops are on the move; the Russians have moved into Belarus, which is within spitting distance of Kyiv.” on 2022-01-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2022-01-18
• stepan estimated 5% on 2022-01-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2022-01-26
• Jayson Virissimo said “https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/” on 2022-01-26
• Deepak estimated 5% on 2022-02-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2022-02-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 68% on 2022-02-24
• Deepak estimated 70% and said “Well I was wrong” on 2022-02-24
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2022-02-24.