PredictionBook is now read-only (

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01

  • jasticE estimated 77% on 2021-12-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2021-12-25
  • Jayson Virissimo said “It might help to spell out the scope of “generally believed”. Believed by whom?#covidon 2021-12-26
  • JoshuaZ said “I was interpreting it as some sort of general consensus enough that it would be acknowledged as the mainstream position. on 2021-12-26
  • JoshuaZ said “My inclination is that if there’s a lot of conflict about what is the case, then this should default to no. on 2021-12-26
  • stepan estimated 15% on 2021-12-29
  • Medea estimated 20% on 2021-12-31
  • jazzsolo estimated 0% on 2021-12-31
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2022-01-01
  • jakebeardsley estimated 5% and said “I think there’s more than a 5% chance that it was a leak, but that we probably won’t achieve consensus to that effect even if it is true. on 2022-01-01
  • qznc estimated 5% on 2022-01-02
  • two2thehead estimated 5% and said “I suspect that eventually it will be considered a lab leak, but IMO that is too soon. Odds are high that any GOVT[s] with the ability to declare it such will want to let heads cool and a return to relative normalcy to occur before saying soon 2022-01-03
  • jbeshir estimated 10% on 2022-02-16