Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals

#covid

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01

jasticE estimated 82% on 2021-12-26
JoshuaZ estimated 18% on 2021-12-26
Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% and said “Does this mean that if it occurs in > 1/5000 it wouldn’t count for the purposes of this prediction? That range is difficult to parse for me. #covid” on 2021-12-27
JoshuaZ said “Jayson, I interpreted it as between 1/5000 to 1 in 500. ” on 2021-12-27
jasticE said “at least 1/5000, at most 1/500” on 2021-12-27
stepan estimated 35% on 2021-12-29
jazzsolo estimated 0% on 2021-12-31
Bruno Parga said “What does “health issues” mean here? Does something very minor like, say, 2 minutes of hiccups twice a month count?” on 2022-01-01
Bruno Parga said “How does this factor in number and type of vaccine? Does it resolve true if this applies to any vaccine? Does it require boosters? Does it apply to vaccines not yet developed as of prediction time?” on 2022-01-01
qznc estimated 10% on 2022-01-02
Achim estimated 5% on 2022-01-07
JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2022-01-08