PredictionBook is now read-only (

NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries.

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2024-01-01.

  • alfredbaudisch estimated 95% on 2022-01-04
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “Lots of conjunction there.on 2022-01-05
  • EloiseRosen said “what counts as “mass adoption”? what counts as “new layers of financial regulations”? “Victims” in terms of what metric?on 2022-01-06
  • Baeboo estimated 1% on 2022-01-07
  • Medea estimated 2% on 2022-02-01
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “The last part seems to not fit well with the rest. Who in a third world country would buy an NFT? on 2022-02-06
  • JoshuaZ said “Like Eloise, I’m not sure this prediction is well-defined enough to associate a probability with. on 2022-02-06
  • JoshuaZ said “Re:third world, not third world, but one has seen cryptocurrency bubbles impact parts of rural China, so some version isn’t completely implausible. on 2022-02-06
  • n99 estimated 1% on 2022-10-28
  • Bruno Parga said “NFTs don’t have mass adoption (why would they?), so this resolves wrong.on 2024-01-01
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2024-01-01.