PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022.

#covid #datatracker

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 74% on 2022-01-14
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 70% on 2022-01-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Current death total via CDC’s estimate is 847,577 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home . ” on 2022-01-17
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% and said “#covid” on 2022-01-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 72% and said “Reduction based on changes in CDC reporting which make it more likely that more deaths will not be counted.” on 2022-01-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 73% and said “Updating based on recent high totals and apparent lack of change how hospitals are actually reporting (as far as I can tell.) ” on 2022-01-25
  • JoshuaZ said “(Note the major changes to reporting will be effective Feb 1, so that will be the real test there.)” on 2022-01-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 76% and said “Updating based on continued high death rate in this spike.” on 2022-02-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 78% and said “Updating on continued high death totals and apparent no impact so far from reporting changes. ” on 2022-02-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 77% and said “Based on downwards trend in covid cases.” on 2022-02-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 81% and said “Based on continued high death totals.” on 2022-02-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 82% on 2022-02-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 84% on 2022-02-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2022-02-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 86% on 2022-02-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 87% on 2022-02-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2022-03-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 89% on 2022-03-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2022-03-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 91% on 2022-03-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2022-03-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 93% on 2022-03-21
  • JoshuaZ estimated 94% on 2022-03-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 88% and said “Reduction because it isn’t clear to me that the current count includes the 72,000 adjustment the CDC said they need to make. ” on 2022-03-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2022-05-05
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2022-05-05
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2022-05-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2022-05-24
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2022-05-26.
  • JoshuaZ said “Official total is now 1,000,254. ” on 2022-05-26