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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2022-01-16
  • JoshuaZ said “The delay to the end date for this prediction is that it might be announced before by the date but not yet get a letter designation until after the date.on 2022-01-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Inspired by this discussion https://twitter.com/applepods/status/1482713989402537986 on 2022-01-16
  • michaelchen estimated 25% on 2022-01-16
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2022-01-16
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% and said “#covidon 2022-01-17
  • galaga estimated 25% on 2022-01-17
  • Bruno Parga estimated 20% on 2022-01-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 29% on 2022-01-20
  • zmon estimated 20% on 2022-01-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 27% on 2022-01-23
  • EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2022-01-23
  • Karl... estimated 10% on 2022-01-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2022-01-25
  • LouisB estimated 10% on 2022-01-26
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2022-01-26
  • PseudonymousUser said “https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28246-3on 2022-02-05
  • PseudonymousUser said “It’s not a lettered variant yet, but it might become one. on 2022-02-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 34% and said “Updating based on articled linked by Tapetum-Lucidum above. on 2022-02-05
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2022-02-10
  • galaga estimated 15% on 2022-02-15
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2022-02-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2022-02-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Still possible BA.2 will get a separate letter designator but seems unlikely. on 2022-02-23
  • galaga   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-02-24.
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-24.
  • PseudonymousUser said “Galaga: The delay to the end date for this prediction is that it might be announced before by the date but not yet get a letter designation until after the date.on 2022-02-24
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-03-21.
  • JoshuaZ said “Hmm, can’t seem to move this back to wrong. on 2022-03-21
  • galaga   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-09-28.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-12-05.