New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
- JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2022-01-16
- JoshuaZ said “The delay to the end date for this prediction is that it might be announced before by the date but not yet get a letter designation until after the date.” on 2022-01-16
- JoshuaZ said “Inspired by this discussion https://twitter.com/applepods/status/1482713989402537986 ” on 2022-01-16
- michaelchen estimated 25% on 2022-01-16
- chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2022-01-16
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% and said “#covid” on 2022-01-17
- galaga estimated 25% on 2022-01-17
- Bruno Parga estimated 20% on 2022-01-17
- JoshuaZ estimated 29% on 2022-01-20
- zmon estimated 20% on 2022-01-23
- JoshuaZ estimated 27% on 2022-01-23
- EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2022-01-23
- Karl... estimated 10% on 2022-01-25
- JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2022-01-25
- LouisB estimated 10% on 2022-01-26
- PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2022-01-26
- PseudonymousUser said “https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28246-3” on 2022-02-05
- PseudonymousUser said “It’s not a lettered variant yet, but it might become one. ” on 2022-02-05
- JoshuaZ estimated 34% and said “Updating based on articled linked by Tapetum-Lucidum above. ” on 2022-02-05
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2022-02-10
- galaga estimated 15% on 2022-02-15
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2022-02-18
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2022-02-18
- JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Still possible BA.2 will get a separate letter designator but seems unlikely. ” on 2022-02-23
- galaga judged this prediction wrong on 2022-02-24.
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-24.
- PseudonymousUser said “Galaga: The delay to the end date for this prediction is that it might be announced before by the date but not yet get a letter designation until after the date.” on 2022-02-24
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2022-03-21.
- JoshuaZ said “Hmm, can’t seem to move this back to wrong. ” on 2022-03-21
- galaga judged this prediction unknown on 2022-09-28.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2022-12-05.