Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023).
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-01.
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2022-01-22
- JoshuaZ said “Based off of claim here https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracyundone/comments/s3qgq7/prince_andrew_stripped_of_royal_titles/hssp97e/ . ” on 2022-01-22
- chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2022-01-24
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% and said “#nuclear” on 2022-01-24
- LouisB estimated 1% on 2022-01-26
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2022-02-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2022-02-26
- JoshuaZ estimated 3% and said “Per https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-invasion-putin-is-ruling-alone.html and surrounding changes in Ukraine. ” on 2022-03-01
- Baeboo estimated 4% on 2022-03-02
- PseudonymousUser said “Consequence unclear so far, but keep an eye on this https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/top-wrap-1-europes-largest-nuclear-power-plant-fire-after-russian-attack-mayor-2022-03-04/” on 2022-03-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2022-03-04
- JoshuaZ said “Updating per events mentioned by TL above.” on 2022-03-04
- Jayson Virissimo said “I completely rounded off the “serious reactor meltdown” disjunct to zero without much thought, but perhaps that should have been responsible for most of the probability mass.” on 2022-03-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2022-03-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% and said “Whoops, never mind https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html” on 2022-03-04
- sty.silver estimated 5% on 2022-03-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2022-04-03
- n99 estimated 2% on 2022-10-28
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2023-02-01.
- JoshuaZ said “Unfortunately, the original Reddit user has deleted their thread where they used numerology to make this prediction so I cannot ask them what they think of it. ” on 2023-02-01