Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023).

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known in 4 days

• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2022-01-22
• JoshuaZ said “Based off of claim here https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracyundone/comments/s3qgq7/prince_andrew_stripped_of_royal_titles/hssp97e/ . ” on 2022-01-22
• chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on 2022-01-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% and said “#nuclear” on 2022-01-24
• LouisB estimated 1% on 2022-01-26
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2022-02-06
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 2% on 2022-02-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% and said “Per https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-invasion-putin-is-ruling-alone.html and surrounding changes in Ukraine. ” on 2022-03-01
• Baeboo estimated 4% on 2022-03-02
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Consequence unclear so far, but keep an eye on this https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/top-wrap-1-europes-largest-nuclear-power-plant-fire-after-russian-attack-mayor-2022-03-04/” on 2022-03-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2022-03-04
• JoshuaZ said “Updating per events mentioned by TL above.” on 2022-03-04
• Jayson Virissimo said “I completely rounded off the “serious reactor meltdown” disjunct to zero without much thought, but perhaps that should have been responsible for most of the probability mass.” on 2022-03-04
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 55% on 2022-03-04
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 20% and said “Whoops, never mind https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html” on 2022-03-04
• sty.silver estimated 5% on 2022-03-04
• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 13% on 2022-04-03
• n99 estimated 2% on 2022-10-28

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