At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014.

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.

• Malcolm Ocean estimated 40% on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. “Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://enterthoughts” on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean said ““Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hyr/pilot_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/” on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean said ““Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hyr/pilot_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/ ” on 2013-07-22
• lavalamp estimated 20% on 2013-07-26
• halfwit estimated 10% and said “I’ve never seen it work for long.” on 2013-08-02
• Malcolm Ocean estimated 10% on 2014-01-03
• Malcolm Ocean   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-03.