World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022.
- jbeshir estimated 5% on 2022-02-15
- jbeshir said “Details per https://manifold.markets/SG/if-russia-successfully-invades-ukra, as the conditions for that market to resolve Yes and not N/A or No. If doubt exists about accuracy of that market’s resolution I will judge independently” on 2022-02-15
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on 2022-04-26
- jbeshir judged this prediction wrong 27 days ago.
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