World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.

• jbeshir estimated 4% on 2022-02-16
• jbeshir said “Resolves per https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-any-countries-that-are-not-cur – in event of doubt, will judge resolution criteria independently” on 2022-02-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2022-02-16
• jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-03.