At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014.

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.

• Malcolm Ocean estimated 80% on 2013-07-22
• Malcolm Ocean said ““Taking part” requires they have followed the steps here, contemporaneously with the original schedule: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hyr/pilot_study_polyphasic_sleep_in_ten_steps/ ” on 2013-07-22
• lavalamp estimated 40% on 2013-07-26
• Malcolm Ocean estimated 50% on 2014-01-03
• Malcolm Ocean   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-03.