Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by alexashton on 2022-02-21.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2022-02-19
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 63% on 2022-02-19
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 78% on 2022-02-19
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 82% on 2022-02-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2022-02-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2022-02-21
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 75% and said “Continued interference on the PR front (particularly the detail about a list) makes the timeline potentially more uncertain. on 2022-02-21
  • alexashton estimated 0% and said “it will not happen in the next 5 dayson 2022-02-21
  • alexashton   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-02-21.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-21.
  • JoshuaZ said “Do not mark a prediction right or wrong before the deadline!on 2022-02-21
  • kuudes   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-21.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-22.
  • JoshuaZ said “Gah, and now the standard bug where too many judgments in is making it impossible to put in new values. Will make a copy. on 2022-02-22
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “JoshuaZ: I can still mark it as true. Do you want me to? on 2022-02-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Yeah, probably should if it it lets you.on 2022-02-22
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2022-02-22.
  • JoshuaZ said “Actually, it let me do that but not give new numerical estimates? Annoying. Hopefully, alex will be appreciate from this the importance of not marking things early.on 2022-02-22
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-22.
  • JoshuaZ said “Actually back to unknown. My bad, still no official confirmations that troops are now present.on 2022-02-22
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-military-operations-ukraine-demands-kyiv-forces-surrender-2022-02-24/on 2022-02-24
  • Tapetum-Lucidum   judged this prediction right on 2022-02-24.

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