Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
- JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2022-02-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 63% on 2022-02-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 78% on 2022-02-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 82% on 2022-02-20
- JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2022-02-20
- JoshuaZ estimated 64% on 2022-02-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 75% and said “Continued interference on the PR front (particularly the detail about a list) makes the timeline potentially more uncertain. ” on 2022-02-21
- alexashton estimated 0% and said “it will not happen in the next 5 days” on 2022-02-21
- alexashton judged this prediction wrong on 2022-02-21.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-21.
- JoshuaZ said “Do not mark a prediction right or wrong before the deadline!” on 2022-02-21
- kuudes judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-21.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-22.
- JoshuaZ said “Gah, and now the standard bug where too many judgments in is making it impossible to put in new values. Will make a copy. ” on 2022-02-22
- PseudonymousUser said “JoshuaZ: I can still mark it as true. Do you want me to? ” on 2022-02-22
- JoshuaZ said “Yeah, probably should if it it lets you.” on 2022-02-22
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction right on 2022-02-22.
- JoshuaZ said “Actually, it let me do that but not give new numerical estimates? Annoying. Hopefully, alex will be appreciate from this the importance of not marking things early.” on 2022-02-22
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2022-02-22.
- JoshuaZ said “Actually back to unknown. My bad, still no official confirmations that troops are now present.” on 2022-02-22
- PseudonymousUser said “https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-military-operations-ukraine-demands-kyiv-forces-surrender-2022-02-24/” on 2022-02-24
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction right on 2022-02-24.