World War III by October 1, 2022
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2022-02-22
- JoshuaZ said “Context- this discussion https://old.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/sx9u7p/what_you_think_is_gonna_happen_next_6_months/hxqwt8l/ . ” on 2022-02-22
- PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2022-02-22
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Updating based on Ukraine. (Actual prior estimate was about 1.2% but now about 1.9% Possibly engaging in false precision here.)” on 2022-02-24
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2022-02-26
- PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2022-02-26
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 2% on 2022-02-28
- Jayson Virissimo said “#war” on 2022-02-28
- Baeboo estimated 3% on 2022-02-28
- EloiseRosen estimated 8% on 2022-03-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2022-03-01
- JoshuaZ said “Updating per https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-invasion-putin-is-ruling-alone.html . ” on 2022-03-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2022-03-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 7% and said “Whoops, never mind. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html” on 2022-03-04
- sty.silver estimated 3% on 2022-03-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2022-03-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2022-03-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2022-03-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2022-03-29
- Baeboo estimated 2% on 2022-03-29
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2022-04-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2022-04-04
- edrevo estimated 7% on 2022-04-05
- PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2022-04-08
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2022-05-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2022-05-12
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2022-10-02.