World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline.
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.
- jbeshir estimated 16% on 2022-02-24
- Deepak estimated 15% on 2022-02-24
- jbeshir estimated 30% on 2022-02-24
- jbeshir said “https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/24/russia-ukraine-news-turkish-ship-hit-by-bomb-off-coast-of-ukraine-16168531/ doesn’t resolve because in Ukrainian waters, but underlines how messy war is when it comes to collateral damage.” on 2022-02-24
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% and said “#war” on 2022-02-24
- JoshuaZ said “What counts as collateral damage? For example, does a cyber attack that also ends up hitting a neighboring country’s infrastructure count?” on 2022-02-25
- jbeshir said “Cyberattack no. Stray bomb or missile, yes.” on 2022-02-25
- JoshuaZ estimated 34% on 2022-02-26
- dmwit estimated 60% on 2022-03-02
- jbeshir judged this prediction right on 2022-03-06.
- jbeshir said “Moldovan tanker hit: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news/card/moldova-says-missile-struck-oil-tanker-in-black-sea-Eqy1VU7ZCrQVtQh9em2J” on 2022-03-06