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Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022

#russia

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-02.

  • PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2022-03-09
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 63% and said “Can’t rule out a dollar-denominated loan from China arriving in the near term” on 2022-03-15
  • Baeboo estimated 76% on 2022-03-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2022-03-16
  • Baeboo estimated 57% on 2022-03-17
  • Baeboo estimated 36% on 2022-03-17
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2022-03-18
  • Baeboo said “#russia” on 2022-03-18
  • PseudonymousUser said “PSA: This prediction was intended to cover the 30 day grace period for a payment they’ve already made. It wont cover the possible upcoming default. ” on 2022-04-12
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-05-02.