There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined)
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
- adanvers estimated 75% on 2022-04-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2022-04-03
- JoshuaZ said “Link in title doesn’t seem to be working. ” on 2022-04-03
- PseudonymousUser said “This should work: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951” on 2022-04-05
- JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2022-04-05
- two2thehead estimated 45% and said “Four-twelfths of the year is here, and two school shootings already according to the measure . Not good odds imo. I want to go lower but let’s start with this for now” on 2022-04-06
- two2thehead said “A well written prediction with a measure and a known on date. Consider this comment positive feedback, adanvers” on 2022-04-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 35% and said “Less than 5 implies four or fewer. Bad odds indeed. ” on 2022-04-07
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% and said “Here’s a third one, it’s not on the tracker for some reason. https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/17-year-arrested-connection-bronx-high-school-shooting/story%3fid=83981645” on 2022-04-12
- PseudonymousUser said “It says they’re considering adding it. ” on 2022-04-12
- PseudonymousUser said “Here’s another one not on the list so far: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/01/us/tanglewood-middle-school-fatal-shooting/index.html” on 2022-04-12
- two2thehead estimated 5% on 2022-04-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 44% and said “Still only two on the tracker. ” on 2022-05-02
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% and said “There are four on the tracker already” on 2022-05-25
- two2thehead estimated 0% and said “A disheartening update” on 2022-05-27
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-01.
- adanvers judged this prediction unknown on 2023-01-01.
- adanvers judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-01.