The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by oakbound on 2023-01-01.

• Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 50% on 2022-05-26
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951” on 2022-05-26
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “There are four already, unfortunately” on 2022-05-26
• oakbound estimated 15% and said “Exceeds 9 means 10 or more, right? Considering that there has only been 8 at the most and 6 on average, not counting 2020 and 2021 due to covid, I don’t think it is likely, especially when taking into account that most happen before summer. ” on 2022-05-26
• oakbound said “Altough, there could be some effects from Covid/lockdowns causing more shootings to happen. ” on 2022-05-26
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Yes, 10 or more. I was modeling the shootings using a Poisson process, which I fitted to this year’s data only. ” on 2022-05-27
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “However, some recent shootings appear to have been concentrated around graduations, so the model might be overestimating the probabilities for the remainder of the year. ” on 2022-05-27
• Tapetum-Lucidum said “Overestimating the rate, and hence the probabilities, I mean” on 2022-05-27
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2022-06-02
• oakbound   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-01.

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