Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet.
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
- tinatoys estimated 40% on 2013-08-03
- tinatoys changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-06” and changed their prediction from “Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. He will t” on 2013-08-03
- tinatoys said “He’s an actor just like Obama. He knows what the people want and he is ready to serve them. Instead of HOPE it will be STOP SPYING ON US.” on 2013-08-03
- holycow81 estimated 9% on 2013-08-04
- RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2013-08-04
- Jayson Virissimo said “How are you going to determine why people voted for him? Also, what constitutes “going against”? Does that mean saying bad things about, eliminating via executive order, etc…?” on 2013-08-04
- tinatoys said “He’s going to say what the Internet generation wants. It’s strategy. Just like Obama in 2008. Stop the NSA. Vote Rand Paul. etc. ” on 2013-08-05
- RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “He’s not going to win, and if he does, he’ll be coopted.” on 2013-08-05
- Peter Hurford estimated 1% and said “This sounds like it will fall to the conjunction fallacy.” on 2013-08-06
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2013-08-07
- Watercressed estimated 3% on 2013-08-07
- RobertLumley said “Peter: I don’t see Rand not going against the NSA, surveillance, etc. (p > 0.95) Conjunctional on him winning, thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him regardless.” on 2013-08-07
- RobertLumley said “Fighting for a free internet is impossible to determine, so this basically boils down to will Rand win. Not sure the conjunction fallacy really knocks it down more than minor amounts. This is the only way Rand could win an election.” on 2013-08-07
- NathanMcKnight estimated 1% and said “Current GOP ranking is 3rd place at 12.3% on RCP. Clinton & Dems up by +4 to +16 against generic Republican and GOP frontrunners (not Paul). ” on 2013-08-07
- NathanMcKnight said “Rand Paul has been laying it on heavy with these supposedly “hot issues” since he got elected. If he was going to capture the public imagination, he already would have. No reason to think he’ll suddenly become relevant now.” on 2013-08-07
- HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2013-08-07
- RandomThinker said “If Rand is elected, he’ll be coopted by the NSA. He’s got more of a chance to do good as a senator, like Senator Church.” on 2013-08-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Per Peter Hurford. ” on 2013-08-08
- azax1 estimated 2% on 2013-08-09
- adbge estimated 1% on 2013-08-10
- arichard estimated 1% on 2013-08-14
- jgauthier estimated 2% on 2013-08-14
- itaibn estimated 2% on 2013-08-15
- Jach estimated 3% on 2013-08-17
- alecbrooks estimated 4% on 2013-10-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2013-11-14
- Temeraire estimated 0% on 2016-02-22
- themusicgod1 estimated 2% on 2016-07-27
- Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2016-07-31
- jgauthier judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-07.