By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known on 2023-06-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2022-09-01
• JoshuaZ said “Context: Relevant bet https://twitter.com/Pv005/status/1565397746256846849 with @Pv005 .” on 2022-09-01
• LetMeIn estimated 5% on 2022-10-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2022-10-03